⚽ Chelsea vs Everton — Analytics and Prediction (13.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Chelsea and Everton are set to clash in what promises to be an intriguing Premier League encounter at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea, known for their attacking prowess and solid home form, will be looking to bounce back after a mixed bag of results in recent matches. Everton, on the other hand, comes into this match with a surge of confidence following a string of commendable performances, particularly on the road, as they aim to secure crucial points in their quest for a mid-table finish.

Form Analysis

Chelsea’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with three wins, two draws, and a couple of losses in their last ten matches. Their recent outings include a disappointing defeat to Atalanta and a draw against local rivals Arsenal, which could indicate some vulnerabilities in their gameplay. However, their impressive victory against Barcelona suggests they still possess the capability to perform at high levels against strong opponents. Chelsea’s home form stands at 53%, which is decent but not outstanding, indicating they can be vulnerable at Stamford Bridge.

Everton’s form has been markedly better in comparison, with three wins in their last five matches and only two losses overall in the same timeframe. Their recent triumphs, including a convincing 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest and a gritty 1-0 victory against Bournemouth, show that they have been defensively solid while also managing to convert chances effectively. Their away form is particularly impressive, boasting an 80% success rate in their last five matches, making them a tough opponent for Chelsea.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, Chelsea has an edge in overall possession and shots created, but their finishing has been a concern, particularly in recent matches. The Blues have struggled to convert their chances, especially in crucial moments, which could cost them against a disciplined Everton defense. Conversely, Everton has been efficient in their attacking transitions, capitalizing on counter-attacking opportunities, which could exploit Chelsea’s defensive lapses. Head-to-head metrics also favor Chelsea slightly, with 3 wins out of the last 5 encounters, but Everton has historically been a team that can upset the odds when least expected.

Both teams have shown tendencies for matches to be high-scoring, with Chelsea averaging 2.6 goals in their last five matches against Everton. However, Everton’s recent defensive solidity will be key in this match, potentially limiting the scoring opportunities for Chelsea.

Head-to-Head History

In their last five meetings, Chelsea has dominated with three victories, while Everton has yet to secure a win, with two matches ending in draws. The historical context suggests that Chelsea typically finds a way to break through Everton’s defense, but the recent form of both teams could make this encounter unpredictable. The last match ended in a 2-2 draw, highlighting that Everton can compete with Chelsea when they are on their game.

Influencing Factors

The match will be held at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea usually enjoys strong support, though their recent home form indicates they are not invincible. The weather conditions, with a temperature of 9°C and broken clouds, should not overly impact the players, but it may affect the speed and quality of play. Given Everton’s strong away form and Chelsea’s struggles to convert chances, the home advantage might not be as pronounced as one would expect.

Additionally, Chelsea’s need for points could lead them to push aggressively for a win, which might leave them exposed to Everton’s counter-attacks, potentially swinging the game in favor of the visitors if they capitalize on any defensive mistakes.

Prediction and Justification

Taking all factors into account, the prediction leans towards Chelsea securing at least a draw, given their overall quality and historical performance against Everton. However, the strong away form of Everton cannot be discounted, which could lead to a tightly contested match. The expected score is likely to be 2:1 in favor of Chelsea, as they leverage their home advantage while Everton puts up a resilient fight.