⚽ AEK Larnaca vs Shkendija — Analytics and Prediction (18.12.2025)

Introduction

AEK Larnaca will host Shkendija in an exciting UEFA Europa Conference League encounter. AEK Larnaca, coming from Cyprus, has shown a robust defensive capability but has struggled to convert draws into wins recently. Their opponent, Shkendija, hailing from North Macedonia, has had mixed results, with a stronger showing in their domestic league compared to European competitions. This match will be crucial for both teams as they seek to establish momentum early in the tournament.

Form Analysis

A glance at AEK Larnaca’s recent form reveals a solid defensive structure, with only one win in their last ten matches but maintaining an impressive record of four draws and no losses. The team’s ability to hold their ground defensively is commendable, but they need to improve their attacking efficiency to secure wins.

On the other hand, Shkendija has also faced challenges in their recent outings, securing just one victory in their last ten matches and suffering three defeats. Their recent form has been inconsistent, which may hinder their performance on the road against AEK Larnaca.

Statistical Analysis

A comparative look at the statistics shows that AEK Larnaca has a slight edge in overall form at home, boasting a 60% success rate in their last five home games. Conversely, Shkendija’s away form is weaker, with only 47% success in their recent away fixtures. Both teams have struggled to score, evident from AEK Larnaca’s recent matches, which have seen low scoring with many draws, while Shkendija has also had difficulties finding the back of the net consistently.

The defensive statistics favor AEK Larnaca as well, with fewer goals conceded in their last few matches, allowing them to maintain draws against tougher opponents. Shkendija’s defensive frailties may be exposed in this match.

Head-to-Head History

Historically, AEK Larnaca and Shkendija have not faced each other frequently, which adds an element of unpredictability to this encounter. However, the experience of AEK in European competitions may play a significant role in their favor.

Influencing Factors

The match will be held at AEK Arena, which typically provides a home advantage for Larnaca. The atmosphere created by local fans can significantly boost the team’s morale and performance. Weather conditions on match day will also be a factor, as wet or windy conditions could impact both sides’ performances, especially Shkendija, who may not be as accustomed to the conditions in Cyprus.

In addition, AEK Larnaca’s defensive solidity paired with Shkendija’s struggles to score could lead to a tightly contested match. The home advantage and the pressure of playing in front of their supporters might motivate AEK to secure at least a draw if not a win.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the recent form, statistical analysis, and the home advantage for AEK Larnaca, the prediction leans towards a favorable outcome for them. AEK Larnaca is expected to either win or draw, reflecting their stronger home performance and Shkendija’s inconsistent form. The predicted score for this match is 2:1, favoring AEK Larnaca, as they look to capitalize on their home advantage and Shkendija’s struggles in away matches.