⚽ AZ Alkmaar vs Jagiellonia — Analytics and Prediction (18.12.2025)

Introduction

AZ Alkmaar will host Jagiellonia in the UEFA Europa Conference League, and this match presents an intriguing encounter between two teams striving for success in European competition. AZ Alkmaar, a club with a rich history in Dutch football, will look to leverage their home advantage, while Jagiellonia, representing Poland, aims to make a statement on the European stage. Both teams come into this fixture with varying degrees of recent form, setting the stage for a competitive match.

Form Analysis

AZ Alkmaar’s recent form has been a mix of results, with only one win in their last five matches. They recorded a notable victory against Drita but have struggled against domestic rivals, drawing twice and losing two matches. This inconsistency could affect their confidence, particularly as they face Jagiellonia at home.

Jagiellonia is also experiencing a tough phase, with only one win in their last ten matches, alongside two draws and two losses. Their recent results, including a draw against Motor Lublin and a defeat to Rayo Vallecano, highlight their struggle to find form. Both teams are in need of a morale-boosting performance, making this match crucial for their respective campaigns.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, AZ Alkmaar’s attacking prowess stands out, particularly when playing at home, where they have managed to score more frequently compared to Jagiellonia’s away performances. AZ has a home form of 60% over their last five matches, indicating a strong potential to capitalize on their home advantage.

On the other hand, Jagiellonia’s away form at 53% shows they have had their moments, but they lack the consistency seen in AZ Alkmaar’s home games. Their inability to convert chances into goals has been evident, as they struggle to find the back of the net against tougher opposition. The statistical comparison suggests that AZ Alkmaar has an edge in both attacking and defensive metrics, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Head-to-Head History

Historically, AZ Alkmaar and Jagiellonia have not faced each other frequently, which adds an element of unpredictability to this matchup. However, AZ’s experience in European competitions provides them with a psychological edge, as they are more accustomed to the pressures of such high-stakes matches.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions on the match day, with a temperature of 12°C and overcast clouds, may impact the players’ performance, but both teams should be acclimatized to these conditions. The wind at 36.0 km/h could play a role in the game’s dynamics, potentially affecting passing and shooting accuracy.

Playing at the AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar will enjoy the support of their home fans, which historically boosts their performance. Home advantage is crucial in tightly contested matches, and AZ will aim to use this to their benefit against a Jagiellonia side that may struggle under pressure.

Prediction and Justification

Given the analysis of both teams’ recent form, statistical performance, and the influence of home advantage, it is reasonable to predict that AZ Alkmaar will secure a victory or at least avoid defeat. Their stronger home form and familiarity with European competition suggest they will capitalize on Jagiellonia’s struggles. The predicted score for the match is 2:1, reflecting AZ Alkmaar’s ability to secure a win while acknowledging that Jagiellonia can pose a threat on the counterattack.