⚽ Osasuna vs Alaves — Analytics and Prediction (20.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Osasuna and Alaves come into this fixture with a mix of recent performances that have kept their fans on edge. Osasuna, playing at home, has shown resilience but has struggled against top-tier teams, such as their recent defeat to Barcelona. Meanwhile, Alaves has managed to secure some crucial victories, notably against Sevilla and Real Sociedad, although they have also faced tough losses, including a defeat to Real Madrid. As both teams look to gain critical points in La Liga, the stakes are high for this encounter at Estadio El Sadar.

Form Analysis

Osasuna has exhibited a somewhat erratic form in their last matches, recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five outings. Their home form has not been particularly strong, managing only a 27% success rate in their last five home games. The 2-0 victory against Levante was a highlight, but their inability to secure points against stronger opponents like Barcelona raises concerns about their consistency.

On the other hand, Alaves has had a challenging run with only 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their away form is even more troubling, with just a 20% win rate in their recent away games. However, they have shown the ability to surprise, like their 1-0 victory over Sevilla, indicating that they are capable of grinding out results when needed. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, making this clash even more significant.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing statistics, Osasuna holds a slight edge with a 45% probability of winning based on recent performances, while Alaves sits at a mere 10%. In their historical head-to-head encounters, Osasuna has won 1 out of the last 5 matches against Alaves, with 2 draws and 2 losses. This suggests a competitive rivalry, though Osasuna has had the upper hand at home in previous seasons.

Alaves has struggled more than Osasuna in terms of away performance, which is a critical factor as they head into this match. While both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, Osasuna’s recent scoring ability, particularly in their home fixtures, could give them the advantage they need to capitalize on Alaves’s defensive lapses.

Head-to-Head History

In the last five encounters between Osasuna and Alaves, the results have been fairly balanced. Osasuna has managed to secure 1 victory, while Alaves has claimed 2 wins, and there have been 2 draws. The average scoreline of 2.4 goals per match indicates that encounters tend to be relatively high-scoring, with both teams capable of finding the back of the net. This historical context will undoubtedly play a role in the psychological aspects of the match.

Influencing Factors

Several factors will influence the match outcome on the day. Estadio El Sadar offers a strong home advantage for Osasuna, who will aim to leverage the support of their fans. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, which should not impact the game significantly. Furthermore, the psychological edge of playing at home, combined with Alaves’s poor away form, may heavily tilt the match in Osasuna’s favor. Injury updates and squad rotations will also be crucial in determining the final line-ups and tactical setups.

Prediction and Justification

Given the analysis of both teams’ forms, statistical insights, and historical context, Osasuna appears to have the upper hand in this fixture. With their home advantage and a slightly better recent performance, they are favored to secure at least a point, if not a victory. The predicted score for this match is 2:1 in favor of Osasuna, as they capitalize on Alaves’s away struggles while also likely conceding a goal due to their defensive vulnerabilities.