⚽ Everton vs Arsenal — Analytics and Prediction (20.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Everton and Arsenal come into this match with different expectations and recent performances. Everton has shown some resilience, managing to secure crucial victories recently, while Arsenal has struggled for consistency in their form. The matchup at Hill Dickinson Stadium is pivotal for both teams as they look to solidify their standings in the Premier League. Arsenal, traditionally a stronger side, will aim to assert dominance, while Everton seeks to leverage home advantage to upset their opponents.

Form Analysis

Everton’s recent form indicates a mixed bag of results. They have achieved two victories in their last five matches, including a significant win against Nottingham Forest. However, their defensive frailties were evident in a heavy loss to Newcastle. With a home form that stands at 60%, they will be looking to build on their recent successes to capitalize on the support of their fans.

In contrast, Arsenal’s recent performances have been less than stellar, with only one win in their last five matches. The Gunners faced a disappointing defeat against Aston Villa and struggled to find their rhythm in various matches, including a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. Their away form, however, remains relatively strong at 67%, suggesting they can still pose a threat on the road despite recent setbacks.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the teams statistically, Everton has managed to secure a total of 10% probability of winning, with a notable 45% chance of a draw and the same for Arsenal. Their recent scoring has been sporadic, but they have shown the ability to keep clean sheets, which could be vital against a team like Arsenal that has offensive threats. Arsenal, on the other hand, possesses a more potent attack on paper but has struggled to convert chances into goals consistently.

The head-to-head record slightly favors Arsenal, but the last few encounters have been tightly contested. The average score of their last five meetings stands at 2.0 goals per match, with a fairly even distribution of wins and draws, indicating that matches between these two often remain competitive.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history shows a balanced rivalry, with Everton winning two of the last five encounters, while Arsenal has claimed victory in only one. The last few matches have often ended in draws, highlighting the competitive nature of these fixtures. The most recent meetings have been close, suggesting that both teams have the capacity to exploit each other’s weaknesses.

Influencing Factors

Several factors will influence the outcome of this match. The weather forecast predicts light rain with a temperature of 7°C, which could affect the playing style and ball control. The home advantage for Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium could also play a crucial role, as they have shown resilience in front of their fans. Additionally, the pressure on Arsenal to perform and return to winning ways could lead to an intense match atmosphere.

The psychological aspect of the match cannot be ignored; Everton will be looking to maintain their home record against a traditional powerhouse like Arsenal, while Arsenal will be keen to assert their dominance and regain confidence. The combination of these factors could lead to a tightly contested match.

Prediction and Justification

Given the current form and statistical analysis, the prediction leans towards Arsenal either winning or drawing the match. Everton has shown flashes of brilliance but has also been inconsistent, particularly against stronger sides. Arsenal’s attacking potential, coupled with their need to bounce back from recent disappointments, gives them the edge. Therefore, the predicted score is 1:2, reflecting Arsenal’s ability to secure a narrow victory on the road.