⚽ Burnley vs Newcastle — Analytics and Prediction (30.12.2025)

Introduction

Both Burnley and Newcastle are set to clash at Turf Moor, with each side looking to secure crucial points in the Premier League. Burnley has struggled this season, finding themselves at the bottom of the table, while Newcastle, despite their strong squad, has also faced challenges, particularly in their recent outings. This matchup presents an opportunity for both teams to reignite their campaigns and gain some much-needed confidence.

Burnley has been unable to translate home advantage into points, while Newcastle will aim to improve their away form, which has been inconsistent at best. The stakes are high as both teams need to capitalize on this fixture to avoid slipping further down the league table.

Form Analysis

Burnley’s recent form has been disappointing, with just one win in their last ten matches. Their home performances have been particularly concerning, as they have managed only a 13% success rate in their last five games at Turf Moor. They have drawn two and lost three of their last five fixtures, showcasing their struggles in both attack and defense. The inability to score in crucial moments has cost them dearly, as evidenced by their last match against Everton, which ended in a goalless draw.

Conversely, Newcastle has not fared much better in their recent outings, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. Their away form shows a slightly better performance at 33%, but they still lack the decisive edge needed to secure victories. The last match against Manchester United highlighted their struggles in breaking down defenses, resulting in a narrow 1-0 defeat. With both teams in poor form, this match could go either way, depending on who finds their rhythm first.

Statistical Analysis

In terms of statistics, Burnley has struggled to find the back of the net, which is evident from their recent matches, with the team scoring just two goals in their last five games. Their defense has also been porous, conceding multiple goals in several matches, including a recent 3-2 defeat to Fulham. Newcastle, on the other hand, has shown a bit more potency in attack but has also been susceptible to conceding goals, as demonstrated in their recent 2-2 draws against Chelsea and Bayer Leverkusen.

When analyzing head-to-head statistics, Newcastle has historically had the upper hand in this matchup, winning three of the last five encounters. The average goals scored in their recent meetings has been 2.8 per match, indicating that both teams can score but also struggle defensively. Given these statistics, it suggests that we could see goals in this fixture, especially with both teams needing to secure points.

Head-to-Head History

Looking at the head-to-head history, Newcastle has consistently outperformed Burnley in their recent meetings, winning four out of the last five encounters. Burnley managed only one win, while Newcastle has demonstrated their ability to score against them, with several matches ending with a scoreline that favors the Magpies. This psychological edge could play a significant role in the upcoming fixture, as past results often influence team morale.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions for the match are expected to be chilly, with a temperature of 1°C and an 88% humidity level. Such conditions could impact player performance, especially for teams like Burnley, who are accustomed to playing in cooler conditions. Turf Moor is known for its passionate home crowd, which could provide a significant boost for Burnley as they look to leverage their home advantage.

However, Newcastle will also be keen to dispel any home advantage Burnley might have by focusing on their attacking prowess and trying to control the game from the outset. The combination of weather, pitch conditions, and home support will be crucial in determining the outcome of this encounter.

Prediction and Justification

Based on the current form and statistical analysis, I predict that Newcastle will either win or draw the match against Burnley. Given Burnley’s recent struggles and Newcastle’s historical dominance in head-to-head encounters, the forecast points to a competitive match. The most likely scoreline could be 1:2 in favor of Newcastle, reflecting their ability to capitalize on Burnley’s defensive frailties while also considering the possibility of a resilient Burnley performance at home.