⚽ Atalanta vs AS Roma — Analytics and Prediction (03.01.2026)

Introduction

Atalanta and AS Roma are set to face each other in what promises to be an exciting match in Serie A. Both teams have a rich history in the league, with Atalanta having established themselves as a formidable force in recent seasons. AS Roma, on the other hand, has been struggling to find consistent form, making this clash even more intriguing as they look to rebound with a strong performance against a tough opponent.

Form Analysis

Atalanta has shown solid form at home, with a 60% success rate in their last five matches. They have been effective in both attack and defense, capitalizing on their home advantage to secure crucial points. Their ability to score goals, along with a disciplined defense, makes them a tough opponent at the New Balance Arena.

In contrast, AS Roma has struggled in their recent away matches, achieving only 40% success. Their inconsistency has been a major concern, which has left them vulnerable to opposition attacks. The pressure is on them to improve their away form and deliver a performance that can earn them points against a strong Atalanta side.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Atalanta has a significant edge in head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five matches against Roma. The average score in these encounters has been 2.8 goals per game, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring matches. Atalanta’s offensive capabilities are evident, as they have consistently scored more than two goals in the majority of their recent fixtures.

AS Roma, on the other hand, needs to tighten their defense, as they have conceded too many goals in recent matches. Their struggles are reflected in their poor away performance, where they have failed to secure wins against teams of similar caliber. This match presents a critical opportunity for Roma to address these issues and show a more robust defensive display.

Head-to-Head History

The recent head-to-head history favors Atalanta, with the team winning three out of the last five meetings. Notably, Atalanta’s victories have often been by a margin of at least one goal, highlighting their dominance in these encounters. The only draw came in a tightly contested match, indicating that both teams can produce competitive performances.

Influencing Factors

The match is set to take place at the New Balance Arena, where Atalanta enjoys a distinct home advantage. The weather conditions are favorable, with clear skies and temperatures around 1°C, which should not hinder gameplay. However, the chilly conditions could affect player performance, particularly for those not accustomed to such temperatures, potentially leveling the playing field.

Atalanta’s recent home form and their strong historical performance against AS Roma play a significant role in this match. The pressure on AS Roma to improve their away record and secure points adds to the stakes of this encounter, making it crucial for them to perform at their best.

Prediction and Justification

Given the current form and historical performance of both teams, Atalanta appears to be the stronger side heading into this match. The combination of their home advantage and Roma’s struggles in away games suggests a favorable outcome for Atalanta. I predict Atalanta will win with a score of 2:1, reflecting their offensive prowess against a Roma side that has shown vulnerability in recent outings.