⚽ Lecce vs AS Roma — Analytics and Prediction (06.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Lecce and AS Roma are set to clash in an intriguing Serie A matchup at Stadio Via del Mare. Lecce, a team recently promoted to the top flight, will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage while facing a seasoned squad like AS Roma, known for their attacking prowess and tactical flexibility. The stakes are high for both teams as they aim to secure crucial points in the league standings.

Form Analysis

Lecce’s recent form shows a mixed bag of results, with a win rate of only 47% in their last five home games. They have struggled to find consistency, which has hampered their ability to climb the league table. Despite being competitive, they have often fallen short against stronger opponents, leading to draws or narrow defeats.

On the other hand, AS Roma has recorded a 40% win rate in their last five away games, a statistic that highlights their struggles on the road. However, they remain a formidable side capable of competing with the best teams in Italy. Their ability to create scoring opportunities, combined with a solid defense, makes them a tough opponent, even in away fixtures.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing both teams statistically, AS Roma shows a slight edge with a more potent attack and a better goal-scoring record. The head-to-head history indicates that AS Roma has won three out of their last five encounters against Lecce, suggesting they have a psychological advantage. Lecce, while resilient, has not been able to consistently breach Roma’s defense in previous matches, which could be a critical factor in this upcoming game.

Defensively, both teams have areas to improve. Lecce’s defense has been porous at times, allowing goals in crucial moments, while Roma’s backline has displayed some vulnerabilities, particularly in away matches. This inconsistency could lead to an open game with potential scoring opportunities for both sides.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma favors the visitors, with AS Roma winning three out of the last five encounters, including a significant 4-1 victory. This historical context adds pressure on Lecce as they strive to improve their standing against a team that has historically dominated them. The recent encounters have also shown that Lecce can be competitive, as evidenced by the two draws in their last five matchups.

Influencing Factors

Several factors will influence the outcome of this match. The Stadio Via del Mare provides Lecce with a home advantage, where they are often more comfortable and supported by their fans. However, AS Roma’s experience in high-pressure situations may counteract this advantage. Weather conditions could also play a role, as rain or difficult pitch conditions might benefit Lecce’s defensive style, allowing them to frustrate Roma’s attacking rhythm.

Moreover, both teams are dealing with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. AS Roma’s squad depth may allow them to adjust better than Lecce, but any absence of star players could shift the balance in favor of the home side. The psychological aspect is also crucial, as Lecce will be eager to prove themselves against a higher-ranked opponent.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the statistical advantages and recent performances of both teams, it is reasonable to predict that AS Roma will emerge victorious or at least secure a draw. Lecce’s recent form does not inspire confidence, and AS Roma’s attacking capabilities could exploit Lecce’s defensive frailties. The predicted score is 1:2, reflecting a closely contested match where Roma’s experience and quality ultimately make the difference.