⚽ Alaves vs Oviedo — Analytics and Prediction (04.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Alaves and Oviedo find themselves in a challenging position as they prepare to face each other in this La Liga matchup. Alaves has struggled to find form, especially at home, while Oviedo also faces difficulties in achieving consistent results, particularly when playing away. This match presents a crucial opportunity for both teams to secure much-needed points as they navigate the competitive landscape of the league.

Form Analysis

Alaves has displayed a concerning form recently, recording only a 20% success rate in their last five home games. With minimal goal-scoring output and defensive lapses, they have struggled to maintain pressure against opponents. Their last home match resulted in a disappointing performance, further amplifying the urgency for improvement in this upcoming fixture.

On the other hand, Oviedo also shares a similar fate with a 20% form rate in their last five away matches. Their inability to secure wins away from home has been a significant setback. Despite showing moments of resilience, they have often fallen short in crucial moments, leading to a lack of confidence as they approach this fixture against Alaves.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Alaves has had a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, winning two out of their last three meetings against Oviedo. The average score from these matches stands at 1.3, indicating that goals may be hard to come by. Furthermore, only one of the last three encounters surpassed the 2.5 goals mark, highlighting the defensive nature both teams tend to adopt in crucial matches.

In terms of probabilities, Alaves holds a 45% chance of winning, while a draw also stands at 45%. Oviedo is given a mere 10% chance of securing a victory, which reflects their struggles in away games. Such statistics suggest that the match could be tightly contested with a potential for low scoring.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Alaves and Oviedo shows a competitive rivalry, with Alaves winning two of their last three encounters and one match ending in a draw. The 2-1 win for Alaves in their last meeting illustrates their ability to perform under pressure, while the 0-0 draw signifies that both teams can also neutralize each other’s strengths when required. Oviedo’s single win adds to the competitive nature of this fixture, indicating that any slight advantage could influence the outcome.

Influencing Factors

This match will take place at Estadio Mendizorrotza, a venue where Alaves generally feels more comfortable. Home advantage could play a significant role in their performance, especially given the current form of both teams. Weather conditions on match day could also be a factor, influencing playstyle and player fitness, but it remains unclear at this stage.

Given the recent struggles of both teams, the psychological aspect cannot be overlooked. Alaves, playing at home, might feel the pressure to deliver a better performance, while Oviedo will need to overcome their away form issues. The stakes are high, making this match critical for both teams to gain momentum moving forward.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the form, statistics, and head-to-head history, Alaves appears to have the upper hand in this matchup. With a double chance recommendation favoring Alaves or a draw, it is plausible to predict that Alaves will secure at least a point from this encounter. The predicted score for the match is 2:1, reflecting Alaves’ potential to capitalize on their home advantage while also acknowledging Oviedo’s capability to score against a struggling defense.