⚽ Alaves vs Real Madrid — Analytics and Prediction (14.12.2025)

Introduction

Alaves will host Real Madrid in what promises to be an intriguing La Liga encounter. Both teams have shown varying levels of form leading up to this match, with Real Madrid being one of the league’s heavyweights and Alaves fighting for every point to secure their position. The backdrop of Estadio Mendizorrotza provides an interesting setting, especially considering the weather conditions that could influence the style of play on the pitch.

Form Analysis

Alaves have had a mixed bag of results in their recent matches, managing to secure 3 wins but also suffering 2 defeats. Their most recent victory against Real Sociedad, coupled with a solid performance against Portugalete, shows that they can be a tough opponent at times. However, losses against teams like Barcelona and Celta Vigo indicate vulnerabilities, particularly in defensive transitions.

On the other hand, Real Madrid has shown a robust form, with 4 wins out of their last 10 matches, albeit with some recent setbacks against Manchester City and Celta Vigo. Their ability to score, highlighted by a high-scoring match against Olympiakos Piraeus, illustrates their attacking prowess. However, inconsistency in defense remains a concern, as demonstrated by their inability to hold onto leads in critical matches.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, Real Madrid clearly holds the upper hand in terms of overall performance. Alaves has a home form of 40% in their last five matches, which is not particularly impressive. In contrast, Real Madrid has a similar away form of 40% but has faced tougher competition in Europe and domestically. The head-to-head statistics favor Real Madrid, who have consistently outperformed Alaves in their previous encounters.

Moreover, looking at the head-to-head metrics, it is clear that Real Madrid has won 3 of the last 5 encounters, while Alaves has only managed 2 victories. The average score in these matchups also leans towards Real Madrid, highlighting their dominance in this fixture.

Head-to-Head History

The historical context of Alaves vs Real Madrid is heavily tilted in favor of the visitors. In their last five meetings, Real Madrid has won three times, with Alaves managing two victories. This trend suggests that Real Madrid has not only been more successful but has also established a psychological edge over Alaves, making it a tough ask for the home side.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions on match day will see a temperature of 5°C with scattered clouds. Such weather can affect player performance, especially for Alaves, who may be less accustomed to playing under these conditions. The Estadio Mendizorrotza is known to be a challenging venue for visiting teams, but Real Madrid’s experience in high-pressure matches should mitigate any advantages that Alaves may have.

Home advantage could play a role, yet both teams have recorded a similar form at home and away recently. Real Madrid’s depth in squad quality and experience in crucial matches will likely overshadow Alaves’ home advantage.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the form, statistical analysis, and historical context, Real Madrid appears to be the favorites going into this match. Alaves will need to put forth their best effort to secure a positive result, but given Real Madrid’s attacking options and experience in tight matches, they are expected to either win or secure a draw. Thus, I predict a final score of 0:2 in favor of Real Madrid.