⚽ Brighton vs Burnley — Analytics and Prediction (03.01.2026)

Introduction

Brighton & Hove Albion will face Burnley in an intriguing Premier League encounter that promises to be competitive given the teams’ recent form and historical matchups. Brighton, known for their attacking play and possession-based style, will be seeking to capitalize on their home advantage at the Amex Stadium, while Burnley will look to secure crucial points in their battle against relegation.

Both teams are struggling to find consistency this season, which adds an element of unpredictability to the match. Brighton’s recent performances have been underwhelming, while Burnley, despite their low standing, will be keen to upset the odds.

Form Analysis

Brighton has had a challenging run of form recently, managing only 20% success in their last five home matches. This lack of winning momentum can be attributed to a series of draws and narrow defeats, indicating that while they create chances, they struggle to convert them into wins. The pressure is mounting on Brighton to secure a victory in front of their home fans, as they aim to climb the league table.

On the other hand, Burnley has fared even worse, with a mere 13% success rate in their last five away fixtures. Their struggles are reflective of a team that has been unable to find the back of the net consistently, combined with defensive frailties that have cost them dearly on the road. With limited points accrued away from home, Burnley will need to dig deep to turn their fortunes around.

Statistical Analysis

In terms of statistics, Brighton has shown a slightly better performance overall, with a 45% probability of winning this match, compared to Burnley’s 10%. The average score from their last five encounters suggests that matches tend to be tightly contested, with a tendency for draws being evident, as highlighted by the three draws in their last five meetings.

Brighton tends to dominate possession but has struggled to convert this into goals, while Burnley has been more conservative in their approach, often relying on counter-attacks. The statistical analysis indicates that Brighton has the edge in creating chances, but their inability to capitalize on these opportunities has been their downfall. Burnley’s defensive setup will be tested against Brighton’s attacking prowess, which could lead to an exciting match.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Brighton and Burnley reveals a balanced contest, with neither side managing to assert complete dominance. Out of the last five meetings, Brighton has won twice, Burnley has won twice, and there has been one draw. This history of close encounters suggests that another tight match is likely, with the potential for either team to snatch a victory.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions at the Amex Stadium are expected to be clear, with a temperature of 1°C and wind at 29 km/h. While the cold might affect player performance slightly, the clear skies will provide a suitable environment for an open game. The home advantage is significant for Brighton, who will have the support of their fans, which can often provide the necessary boost in crucial moments of the match.

Furthermore, the psychological impact of recent form cannot be overlooked. Brighton will be eager to break their streak of poor results, while Burnley, facing potential relegation, will approach the match with urgency, adding to the intensity of the encounter.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the current form, statistical probabilities, and historical context, the prediction leans towards Brighton securing at least a draw, if not a win. Their ability to create chances combined with their home advantage should see them through against a struggling Burnley side who have found it difficult to perform away from home. Given the analysis, the likely outcome of the match is a 2:1 victory for Brighton, as they look to harness their attacking potential while managing Burnley’s counter-attacking threats.