⚽ Cimarrones vs Ensenada — Analytics and Prediction (10.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Cimarrones and Ensenada are gearing up for an exciting showdown in the Liga Premier Serie A. Cimarrones, who have shown a stronger recent form, will be looking to leverage their home advantage, while Ensenada will aim to improve their away performance to secure crucial points in the league. The match promises to be a competitive encounter as both teams seek to establish their positions in the standings.

Form Analysis

Cimarrones have displayed a solid form at home with a 60% success rate in their last five matches. This includes a series of performances that have demonstrated both defensive solidity and attacking capabilities. Their confidence will be bolstered by their recent home victories, making them a formidable opponent on their turf.

On the other hand, Ensenada has struggled with a 47% form rate in their last five away matches. This inconsistency has hindered their ability to capitalize on key opportunities, and they will need to address their defensive vulnerabilities to stand a chance against a confident Cimarrones side. Their recent performances have not been up to par, and this match could be a test of their resilience and ability to adapt on the road.

Statistical Analysis

The statistical comparison between Cimarrones and Ensenada highlights the former’s advantages. Cimarrones have a higher win probability of 45%, while Ensenada sits at only 10%. The average score in the one previous encounter shows Cimarrones winning 1-0, which indicates a tendency towards low-scoring games between these teams. Additionally, the total goals scored by Cimarrones in recent matches suggest they have been more effective in front of goal compared to Ensenada.

Ensenada’s statistics reveal a team that has struggled to find the net away from home, which further complicates their chances. Their lack of offensive output combined with Cimarrones’ stronger home record makes them the underdogs in this matchup. The metrics clearly favor Cimarrones, especially given their recent head-to-head success.

Head-to-Head History

The only encounter between Cimarrones and Ensenada resulted in a 1-0 victory for Cimarrones. This historical context adds psychological weight to the current matchup, as Cimarrones will look to maintain their dominance over Ensenada. The absence of draws in their previous meetings suggests a potential tendency for clear outcomes, either way.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari, where Cimarrones have a distinct home advantage. The weather forecast indicates clear skies with a temperature of 15°C, which should be comfortable for both teams. However, the home crowd support will likely play a crucial role in boosting Cimarrones’ morale, contributing to their performance levels. Ensenada will need to overcome these external factors to compete effectively.

Additionally, the relative form of both teams suggests that Cimarrones are better positioned to take advantage of any mistakes made by Ensenada. The combination of home support, current form, and historical performance creates a challenging environment for the visiting team.

Prediction and Justification

Considering all aspects of the analysis, Cimarrones are favored to win or draw this matchup. Their stronger form, home advantage, and superior statistical metrics make them the likely candidates for victory. Given the historical context and current conditions, I predict a final score of 2:1 in favor of Cimarrones, as they capitalize on their strengths while Ensenada struggles to find their footing away from home.