⚽ Fiorentina vs AC Milan — Analytics and Prediction (11.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Fiorentina and AC Milan are set to clash in what promises to be an intriguing encounter in Serie A. Fiorentina, playing at home, will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while AC Milan, known for their strong away performances, will aim to continue their impressive form in the league. The stakes are high for both teams as they seek to secure valuable points in the race for European qualification.

Form Analysis

Fiorentina’s recent form at home has been less than stellar, with a win rate of only 47% in their last five matches. This inconsistency could prove detrimental as they face a formidable opponent like AC Milan. The team has struggled to find their rhythm and will need a significant improvement to challenge for a victory.

In contrast, AC Milan has shown excellent form on the road, boasting a 73% win rate in their last five away games. Their ability to perform under pressure and secure results away from home will give them confidence heading into this match. The momentum gained from recent performances could be a decisive factor in this fixture.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, AC Milan has a clear edge with a higher average points per game in away matches. Fiorentina’s defense has also shown vulnerabilities, conceding goals at crucial moments, which could be exploited by Milan’s potent attack. The head-to-head metrics favor Fiorentina slightly, but recent form heavily leans in favor of AC Milan, who have proven to be resilient in their outings.

In previous encounters, both teams have exhibited a tendency to score, with four out of the last five matches going over 2.5 goals. This trend suggests that defensive solidity will be crucial for Fiorentina if they hope to contain Milan’s attack.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Fiorentina and AC Milan reveals a competitive rivalry. In their last five meetings, Fiorentina has managed to secure three victories, while AC Milan has won once and one match ended in a draw. However, the recent trend favors AC Milan, who have shown improvement in their performances and have secured crucial wins against Fiorentina in tight contests.

Influencing Factors

The match will be held at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, where Fiorentina typically enjoys strong support from their fans. Home advantage can often be a significant factor in Serie A, but the current form and confidence levels of both teams might mitigate this aspect. Weather conditions may play a role as well, but no extreme factors are expected that could impact gameplay.

Additionally, AC Milan’s experience in high-pressure situations could give them the upper hand. The pressure on Fiorentina to perform at home could lead to mistakes if they fail to start strong, making it imperative for them to establish control early in the match.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form, statistics, and head-to-head history, AC Milan is well-positioned to secure at least a draw in this match, if not a victory. The combination of their superior away form, experience, and attacking prowess suggests they could capitalize on any defensive lapses from Fiorentina. The predicted score for this match is 1:2, with AC Milan likely edging out Fiorentina in a closely contested encounter.