⚽ Genoa vs Cagliari — Analytics and Prediction (12.01.2026)

Introduction

Both Genoa and Cagliari are set to clash in an exciting Serie A matchup at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Genoa, historically a strong team at home, has struggled in recent matches, while Cagliari has shown a more resilient away performance. This contest not only carries implications for league standings but also serves as a critical point for both teams to build momentum as the season progresses.

Form Analysis

Genoa’s recent form has been concerning, as evidenced by their 13% performance rate in the last five home games. This poor run includes several disappointing results, highlighting issues in both defense and attack. The team will need to find a way to strengthen their home advantage if they hope to turn their fortunes around in this match.

Cagliari, on the other hand, has been performing notably better on the road with a 33% success rate in their last five away fixtures. Their ability to grind out results, even against tougher opposition, reflects a growing confidence that could prove beneficial in this encounter. The team’s recent performances suggest they are capable of capitalizing on Genoa’s vulnerabilities.

Statistical Analysis

When examining the statistics, Genoa has historically had the upper hand in head-to-head matchups against Cagliari, with two wins in their last five encounters. However, the last few matches have seen a trend towards draws, indicating that Cagliari has been able to hold their ground against them. The average score in their past meetings stands at 3.6 goals, with four out of five matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting an attacking approach from both sides.

Conversely, Cagliari’s defense has shown some weaknesses, which Genoa might exploit if they can find their rhythm. Despite their poor home form, Genoa will look to leverage their historical advantage and the home crowd to regain their scoring touch.

Head-to-Head History

The recent head-to-head history between the two teams shows a competitive balance, with Genoa winning two out of the last five encounters and three matches ending in draws. This illustrates a pattern where both teams can find the net, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The fact that Cagliari has been able to secure draws against Genoa in the past highlights their potential to continue that trend.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, a venue known for its passionate atmosphere, which could sway the game in favor of the home side, Genoa. However, their recent form at home raises concerns about their ability to capitalize on this advantage. Weather conditions could also play a role; if it rains, it might affect gameplay, typically favoring the team with better defensive skills.

Additionally, Cagliari’s recent form suggests they are adaptable, potentially allowing them to thrive in challenging conditions. The pressure is on Genoa to perform, and how they respond to this can significantly influence the outcome of the match.

Prediction and Justification

Taking into account the current form, historical performance, and the psychological factors at play, the prediction leans towards Cagliari having the upper hand. Given their recent away form and ability to secure points against Genoa in previous encounters, a draw or a narrow victory for Cagliari seems likely. The expected scoreline is 1:2, reflecting Cagliari’s potential to capitalize on Genoa’s defensive lapses while also facing a resilient challenge from the home side.