⚽ Ludogorets vs PAOK — Analytics and Prediction (11.12.2025)

Introduction

In the upcoming UEFA Europa League match, Ludogorets will host PAOK at the Huvepharma Arena. Both teams come into this matchup with a mixture of recent performances, which will undoubtedly influence their strategies and confidence on the pitch. Ludogorets, known for their strong home presence, will look to leverage their local support against a PAOK side that has been resilient in away fixtures. The stakes are high, as both teams aim to make their mark in this prestigious competition.

Form Analysis

Ludogorets has had an inconsistent run in their last ten matches, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their recent form shows a slight dip, with a draw against Slavia Sofia and a narrow victory against Celta Vigo, indicating a struggle to maintain consistency. However, their strong home performance historically gives them an edge as they prepare for this crucial encounter. The team has secured two victories in their last five home matches, but their overall home form stands at only 40%, suggesting vulnerabilities that PAOK could exploit.

On the other hand, PAOK has also faced challenges with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games. Their last match saw them triumph over Aris Thessalonikis, boosting their morale. PAOK’s recent away form is better, boasting a 53% success rate in their last five outings, which indicates they can perform well outside their home ground. The team’s ability to secure points on the road will be crucial as they face a formidable opponent in Ludogorets.

Statistical Analysis

When analyzing the statistics, Ludogorets has shown a mixed bag of results, with a goal-scoring average that reflects their struggles at times. Meanwhile, PAOK’s statistics reveal a more balanced approach, with a slightly higher goal conversion rate in their recent matches. The home advantage for Ludogorets could potentially skew the statistics in their favor, but given their recent home form and defensive lapses, PAOK could find opportunities to capitalize.

Defensively, Ludogorets has allowed goals in crucial moments, which could be a deciding factor against a PAOK team that has a knack for capitalizing on defensive mistakes. The probability of both teams scoring is high, with both sides showcasing attacking potential in their recent games. This matchup is poised to be competitive, with statistical trends favoring a draw or a narrow win for either team.

Head-to-Head History

Historically, encounters between Ludogorets and PAOK have been closely contested, with neither team consistently dominating the other. In recent meetings, both teams have shown the capability to win, making it difficult to predict a clear favorite based on past performances. This history of competitive matches suggests that the upcoming fixture will not be straightforward and could hinge on individual moments of brilliance.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions on the day of the match are expected to be cool, with a temperature of 5°C and broken clouds, which should not significantly affect gameplay. The humidity at 73% might play a role in player fatigue as the match progresses. Playing at the Huvepharma Arena, Ludogorets will have the benefit of home support, which could boost their confidence and performance levels.

However, PAOK’s experience in handling away fixtures in high-pressure situations cannot be overlooked. Their recent performances away from home indicate a level of resilience that can be crucial in tight matches. The combination of home advantage for Ludogorets and the away experience of PAOK sets the stage for a gripping encounter.

Prediction and Justification

Given the current form, statistical insights, and historical context, the prediction for this match leans towards PAOK being able to secure at least a draw or a narrow win. With Ludogorets struggling to maintain consistency and PAOK showing resilience in away matches, the outcome is likely to favor the visitors. The expected score is 1:2, indicating a close match where PAOK capitalizes on any defensive errors by Ludogorets.