⚽ Napoli vs Parma — Analytics and Prediction (14.01.2026)

Introduction

Napoli is set to host Parma at the iconic Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in what promises to be an intriguing clash in Serie A. Napoli, known for their attacking prowess, will look to leverage their home advantage against a Parma side that has shown resilience but struggles for consistency this season. Both teams have contrasting objectives, with Napoli aiming for European qualification while Parma seeks to secure their position in the top flight.

Form Analysis

Napoli’s recent form at home has been a mixed bag, with a win rate of 53% in their last five matches. While they have showcased moments of brilliance, inconsistency has crept in, which could affect their confidence. Key players will need to step up to ensure a strong performance against a side they are expected to dominate.

On the other hand, Parma has managed a 47% success rate in their last five away matches, reflecting their struggles on the road. Their ability to secure points away from home has been limited, and they will need to find a way to convert chances into goals to stand a chance against a formidable Napoli side.

Statistical Analysis

Looking at the statistics, Napoli has performed strongly in head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five meetings with Parma, while Parma has only secured one victory. The average goals scored in these matchups has been around 2.0, indicating a tendency for games to be closely contested yet often favoring Napoli. Both teams have shown vulnerability at the back, which could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially given their recent forms.

Parma’s away performances have highlighted defensive lapses, contributing to their low win percentage. Napoli, conversely, will aim to capitalize on these weaknesses, leveraging their attacking flair to create scoring opportunities. With a strong home crowd behind them, Napoli is likely to dominate possession and create more chances than Parma.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between Napoli and Parma reveals a clear advantage for Napoli, having won three out of the last five encounters. Their last meeting ended in a stalemate with a 0-0 draw, but prior to that, Napoli had established a pattern of victories, including a convincing 2-0 win at home. This historical context suggests that Napoli will be confident heading into this fixture, aiming to replicate their past successes.

Influencing Factors

Several factors will influence the outcome of this match. The game will take place at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, a venue where Napoli typically performs well, bolstered by the support of their passionate fans. Additionally, weather conditions could play a role, with typical autumn weather expected, which may impact the style of play and the players’ performances.

Moreover, Napoli’s current squad depth and quality in key positions give them an edge over Parma, who may struggle to match their intensity and technical ability. Injuries or suspensions, if any, could also affect team selections and strategies, but as it stands, Napoli appears to have the upper hand.

Prediction and Justification

Given the statistical analysis, form, and head-to-head history, Napoli is favored to win this match. With their attacking capabilities and home advantage, they are expected to secure a victory against a struggling Parma side. The prediction leans towards a scoreline of 2:1, reflecting Napoli’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses while acknowledging Parma’s potential to score against a sometimes vulnerable Napoli defense.