⚽ Shamrock Rovers vs Hamrun Spartans — Analytics and Prediction (18.12.2025)

Introduction

Shamrock Rovers and Hamrun Spartans are set to clash in what promises to be an intriguing encounter in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Shamrock Rovers, the Irish champions, will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage, while Hamrun Spartans, hailing from Malta, aim to prove their mettle on the continental stage. Both teams enter the match with a mix of recent performances that suggest potential for an unpredictable outcome.

Form Analysis

Shamrock Rovers have had a challenging run in their last five matches, managing only two wins and suffering three defeats. Their recent results indicate struggles against higher-tier opposition, notably falling to Shakhtar Donetsk and Breidablik. However, they did secure a solid victory against Cork City, showcasing the ability to perform at home, even if their form has been inconsistent lately. The home record is particularly concerning, with only 7% success in their last five home matches.

On the other hand, Hamrun Spartans have also faced difficulties, with only two wins in their last ten matches, and three of those being losses. Their defeats against teams like Shakhtar Donetsk and Marsaxlokk highlight their struggles against more competitive squads. Nevertheless, they did manage a win against Lincoln Red Imps FC, indicating moments of potential that could be harnessed during the match. Their away form is slightly better, showing a 20% success in their last five matches, suggesting they can pose a threat even outside of their home environment.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the overall statistics of both teams, Shamrock Rovers have a slight edge in terms of possession and passing accuracy, which could play a crucial role in controlling the game. However, their defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, particularly in recent outings, where they conceded multiple goals. In contrast, Hamrun Spartans have exhibited a more robust defensive display, although they have struggled to convert possession into meaningful goal-scoring opportunities. The chances created statistic indicates that both teams have been lackluster in finishing, which could be pivotal in deciding the match outcome.

In terms of goal-scoring ability, both teams have similar profiles, but Shamrock Rovers tend to have a more aggressive attacking approach. However, with just a 10% win probability for Shamrock Rovers and a 45% chance for both a draw and a Hamrun Spartans win, the statistical favor leans towards the latter, indicating a more balanced matchup than initially perceived.

Head-to-Head History

There is limited historical data on head-to-head encounters between Shamrock Rovers and Hamrun Spartans, as this may be one of their first competitive meetings. This lack of familiarity could create an unpredictable atmosphere, where both teams may struggle to exploit each other’s weaknesses effectively. The absence of previous matches means that tactical adjustments will be crucial for both sides.

Influencing Factors

The match will take place at the Tallaght Stadium, where Shamrock Rovers have the advantage of home support. However, their recent poor home form could undermine this benefit. The weather conditions, with temperatures at around 5°C and high humidity, may also influence player performance, potentially leading to fatigue, especially given both teams’ recent exertions. Wind speeds of 24.55 km/h could affect passing and shooting accuracy, making adaptability key for both squads.

Moreover, the psychological aspect of playing in front of home fans can sometimes add pressure, which Shamrock Rovers will need to manage effectively. Conversely, Hamrun Spartans may find motivation in being the underdogs, aiming to upset the odds.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the form, statistical analysis, and influencing factors, the prediction leans towards Hamrun Spartans securing at least a draw, if not a win. Their slightly better away form and Shamrock’s ongoing struggles make this matchup highly competitive. The forecasted score is 1:2, highlighting the potential for Hamrun Spartans to capitalize on defensive lapses by Shamrock Rovers while maintaining composure in front of goal.