Trump Proposes $100 Billion Investment in Venezuelan Oil Amid Industry Skepticism

President Donald Trump has proposed a substantial investment of at least $100 billion in Venezuela’s oil sector, yet the response at the White House was tepid. An oil executive cautioned that the South American nation is currently deemed ‘uninvestable.’

Leaders from major US oil companies who participated in the discussion acknowledged Venezuela’s vast energy resources as a potentially lucrative opportunity. However, they stressed that significant reforms would be necessary to make the region appealing for investment, resulting in no immediate commitments from these executives.

In a meeting held on Friday, Trump expressed his intent to activate Venezuela’s oil production following the US military’s operation that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. He asserted, ‘One of the benefits for the United States from this situation will be reduced energy prices.’

Despite Trump’s optimism, the oil executives expressed reservations. Darren Woods, the CEO of Exxon, remarked, ‘We have experienced asset seizures there twice, making any potential re-entry contingent on significant changes from past interactions and the current environment. Right now, it’s uninvestable.’

Venezuela has had a tumultuous relationship with global oil companies since oil was first discovered in the nation over a century ago. Chevron remains the only major American oil company still engaged in operations within Venezuela, while a few foreign firms, including Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni, were also involved in the discussions at the White House.

Trump emphasized that his administration would have the final say on which companies could operate in Venezuela. ‘You will be dealing directly with us, not with Venezuela itself. We do not want you to negotiate with Venezuela,’ he stated.

According to the White House, efforts are underway to cautiously lift US sanctions that have hindered Venezuelan oil sales. Officials indicated they are collaborating with interim leaders, currently represented by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who succeeded Maduro.

It was also made clear that the US would maintain oversight of the sales to ensure leverage over Rodríguez’s administration. Recently, the US has seized multiple oil tankers carrying sanctioned crude, with officials working on establishing a sales process that would channel revenues into US-controlled accounts.

Trump declared, ‘We are open for business,’ signaling a renewed interest in Venezuelan oil production. However, Venezuela’s output has been severely impacted in recent years due to a combination of mismanagement, lack of investment, and US sanctions, currently contributing less than 1% to the global oil market at around one million barrels per day.

Chevron, responsible for roughly 20% of Venezuela’s oil production, has expressed intentions to enhance its output, building on its existing operations. Exxon is also planning to deploy a technical team in the upcoming weeks to evaluate the situation.

Repsol, producing approximately 45,000 barrels daily, believes it can potentially triple its production in Venezuela in the coming years under favorable conditions. Other industry executives noted that Trump’s proposals could stimulate investment, expressing readiness to capitalize on the opportunity.

Bill Armstrong, head of an independent oil and gas exploration firm, stated, ‘We are prepared to enter Venezuela. In real estate terms, it is prime territory.’

Nonetheless, analysts argue that significantly boosting production would require considerable effort. David Goldwyn, president of an energy consultancy, remarked, ‘They are being as courteous as possible while showing support, but without committing actual funds.’

Goldwyn added that companies like Exxon and Shell are unlikely to invest substantial amounts—ranging from single-digit to tens of billions—without assurance of physical security, legal predictability, and a competitive fiscal environment. ‘From an industry standpoint, the situation is not very inviting. The circumstances simply aren’t conducive,’ he asserted.

While smaller firms may be more inclined to invest in Venezuela’s oil sector over the next year, such investments are likely to remain in the $50 million range, far from the ambitious $100 billion Trump has proposed. Rystad Energy estimates that an investment of $8 billion to $9 billion annually would be necessary to triple Venezuela’s production by 2040.

Trump’s suggested $100 billion investment could dramatically influence production levels—but only if it materializes, according to Rystad’s chief economist, Claudio Galimberti. He noted that such large-scale investments would hinge on political stability and possible subsidies, warning that Americans shouldn’t anticipate immediate relief in oil prices from Venezuela.

‘It will be challenging to secure substantial commitments before a fully stabilized political environment is established, and when that will occur remains uncertain,’ he concluded.