⚽ VfL Wolfsburg vs FC St. Pauli — Analytics and Prediction (14.01.2026)

Introduction

Both VfL Wolfsburg and FC St. Pauli come into this match with a similar recent performance, characterized by a lack of wins. Wolfsburg has struggled to find the net in their last few outings, while St. Pauli has also been unable to secure victories, leading to a tight competition in the Bundesliga. This matchup at the Volkswagen Arena will present an opportunity for both teams to turn their fortunes around and gain crucial points in the league.

Form Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg’s recent form has been quite concerning, as they have only managed to draw one of their last ten matches, with no victories to boast. Their last outing ended in a 1-1 draw against Estrela, which indicates a lack of scoring prowess and potential defensive vulnerabilities. The home form of Wolfsburg has shown a slight improvement, yielding a 47% success rate in their last five home matches. However, the inability to secure wins puts significant pressure on them as they prepare to face St. Pauli.

On the other hand, FC St. Pauli has been equally challenged, with their last match resulting in a goalless draw against Werder Bremen. This adds to their total of one draw in the last ten games, with no victories. St. Pauli’s away form stands at 33% in their last five matches, indicating they struggle to perform outside their home ground. If they are to contend effectively against Wolfsburg, they will need to find a way to convert their defensive stability into offensive opportunities.

Statistical Analysis

When comparing the statistics of both teams, it becomes evident that neither side has had a strong attacking presence lately. Wolfsburg has failed to secure a win in their last ten matches, resulting in an alarming trend of draws. St. Pauli mirrors this performance, indicating a broader issue within both squads. In their previous encounters, both teams have shown a tendency to end matches in stalemates, evidenced by their last four head-to-head meetings resulting in draws.

Wolfsburg’s home advantage, however, gives them a slight edge, as they typically perform better at the Volkswagen Arena, despite their recent struggles. St. Pauli’s away form is less favorable, which may hinder their chances of securing a win in this match. Both teams’ recent statistics suggest a low-scoring affair, with the potential for another draw on the cards.

Head-to-Head History

The head-to-head history between VfL Wolfsburg and FC St. Pauli is characterized by a series of evenly matched contests. In their last four meetings, there have been no wins for either side, with all matches ending in draws. This includes two 1-1 draws and a 0-0 stalemate, highlighting the competitive nature of these encounters and suggesting that both teams struggle to assert dominance over the other.

Influencing Factors

The weather conditions leading into this match are expected to be quite chilly, with a temperature of 1°C and high humidity levels. Such conditions could impact player performance, particularly if players are unable to acclimatize quickly. The overcast clouds may also affect visibility and playing conditions, which could result in a cautious approach from both teams.

Additionally, playing at home generally benefits Wolfsburg, offering them the familiar environment of the Volkswagen Arena. However, given their current form, the home advantage may not be as pronounced as in previous seasons. St. Pauli will need to exploit any defensive lapses from their opponents to capitalize on potential scoring opportunities.

Prediction and Justification

Considering the current form and head-to-head statistics, it’s reasonable to predict that VfL Wolfsburg will capitalize on their home advantage, but a draw remains a strong possibility given both teams’ recent struggles. The match could very well end in a stalemate, but I lean towards a narrow victory for Wolfsburg. Therefore, the predicted score is 1:0, with the expectation that Wolfsburg may finally manage to clinch a much-needed victory in front of their home fans.